Will Trump Visit China This Year? Prediction Markets Are Watching
A market on Myriad is asking if Donald Trump will visit mainland China before the end of 2025. Traders are split almost evenly, giving it about a 48% chance.
The bet only counts if Trump physically sets foot in mainland China before December 31. Flying over China or stopping in Hong Kong/Taiwan does not count. The result will be confirmed by official U.S. or major media reports.
On other platforms:
- Polymarket: Runs a broader “Trump travel in 2025” market. China is one of the top picks, with about a 52% chance.
- Kalshi: Focuses on whether Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this year. Traders there are more confident, putting it at 73%.
What the media says
- Reuters: U.S. and China agreed on a TikTok framework that includes a Trump–Xi call.
- AP & The Guardian: White House extended TikTok’s divestiture deadline, showing ongoing talks.
- WSJ & SCMP: Beijing formally invited Trump, and negotiations for a state visit are underway, with trade issues being discussed.
How to read the odds
- Myriad: Straight bet on whether Trump steps into China.
- Kalshi: Bet on a Trump–Xi meeting, likely through a formal visit.
- Polymarket: Compares China with other travel destinations, showing overall sentiment.
Bottom line
Talks between Washington and Beijing are heating up. A Trump trip to China looks possible—and traders are betting on it.
- For a clear yes/no on a visit: Myriad
- For a regulated option: Kalshi
- For broader sentiment: Polymarket
