Bitcoin Price Outlook (Simplified)
1-Hour Chart
Bitcoin has broken down from the $112,000 level with strong selling pressure. The price is now moving sideways around $103,000, but sellers still control the market.
Trading volume shows some early signs of buying interest — the last candle had a lower wick and a green body — but this might just be a short break in the overall decline.
Short-term traders might find quick opportunities between $103,000 and $106,000, though the risk of fake breakouts is high.
4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart also supports a bearish (downward) trend. Since reaching $116,035, Bitcoin has been forming lower highs and lower lows.
Sell volume remains strong, and the price recently dipped below $103,000 before bouncing slightly — showing some buyer interest in that area.
Resistance is seen near $108,000, and momentum still points to caution. For any real recovery, Bitcoin would need to form a double bottom or show bullish divergence (a sign of reversal).
Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin reversed sharply after hitting $126,272. Big red candles with strong volume suggest heavy selling, possibly from large traders or institutions.
The drop to around $103,530 puts Bitcoin near a key support zone, with $100,000 as the next psychological level.
Resistance sits between $124,000 and $126,000, where price was previously rejected. Overall, the market remains fragile.
Indicators Summary
- RSI: 33 – almost oversold, but no reversal yet.
- Stochastic: 6 – very low, showing weakness.
- CCI: -146 – deep in negative territory.
- ADX: 26 – confirms a strong trend.
- Awesome Oscillator: -4,350 – bearish momentum.
- MACD: -1,627 – still negative.
Overall, indicators point to a continuing downtrend with limited signs of recovery.
Moving Averages
All key moving averages (EMA & SMA) from short-term (10-period) to long-term (200-period) are trending downward.
- Short-term averages: $112,317–$113,607 → above current price = resistance.
- Long-term averages: around $108,000 → also pointing down.
This confirms consistent bearish pressure across all timeframes.
Possible Scenarios
Bullish Case (Optimistic View)
If Bitcoin holds the $103,000 support and buyers step in with stronger volume, a short-term rebound toward $108,000–$110,000 could happen.
A clear bullish pattern or volume increase would be needed to confirm this move.
Bearish Case (Pessimistic View)
The overall trend remains strongly bearish. With lower highs, high selling volume, and resistance from moving averages, Bitcoin could still fall further — possibly testing $100,000 or even lower — unless a clear reversal appears.
