Bitcoin is entering the final months of 2025 in an unusual position. Even though it reached a new all-time high in October, the price has dropped since then. As a result, Bitcoin could end 2025 with a negative yearly return.
This situation may look alarming, but according to one analyst, it is not a sign that Bitcoin’s cycle is broken. Instead, it may simply indicate that Bitcoin is moving into a bear market phase.
A Red Year Signals a Bear Market, Not a Failed Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a repeating pattern: several years of positive closes (green yearly candles), followed by one year that closes lower (a red candle). This pattern has appeared multiple times since 2011.
In the current cycle, both 2023 and 2024 closed in the green. However, 2025 is now likely to close in the red, which has raised concerns among traders.
Crypto analyst CryptoBullet explains that a red close in 2025 does not mean the four-year cycle has failed. It simply confirms that Bitcoin has entered the bear phase of the cycle. He notes that many investors focus too much on the color of the yearly candle, while the more important factor is where Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows.
If 2025 closes lower, the yearly candle may form a doji, a technical pattern that shows market indecision after a strong rally. Doji candles often appear near trend reversals.
This view supports the idea that Bitcoin already reached its cycle peak in October, when it hit a new high of around $126,080. In past cycles, once Bitcoin sets a new high in the post-halving year, it typically enters a long correction phase, regardless of how that year closes.
What Could Happen in 2026
CryptoBullet has maintained this outlook since early December. Bitcoin started 2025 near $93,396 and has since fallen well below its October peak. He compares this structure to what happened after Bitcoin’s 2019 top.
During that period, Bitcoin traded for months about 30% below its peak, while altcoins began forming a bottom and slowly recovered.
According to CryptoBullet, a similar pattern may be unfolding now, but on a larger scale. Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years.
Based on this setup, he expects a dead cat bounce in early 2026, along with a brief rotation into altcoins. After that, he warns that a deeper market-wide correction could follow as the bear market continues.
