Despite Bitcoin’s strong rally since April 2026, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant believes the market is still in a broader bearish phase. While some investors see BTC’s rebound as the start of a new bull run, CryptoQuant says current unrealized profit levels are still far below what is usually seen during major bull markets.
Bitcoin recently surged to $82,000 on May 6, marking its highest level since January 2026. BTC first moved above $81,000 on May 5 before briefly touching $82,000 the next day, although it later faced rejection at that level.
According to Julio Monero, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, the sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price may encourage investors to start taking profits, which could increase market volatility and create more selling pressure.
Monero revealed that Bitcoin holders realized profits of around 14,600 BTC on May 4, the highest daily profit-taking level since December 2025. Over the past 30 days, total realized profits also climbed above 20,000 BTC, strengthening concerns that more investors may begin selling soon.
Although Bitcoin has jumped more than 20% since early April and is now trading near $80,000, Monero described the move as a “bear market rally.” In his view, the recent gains do not necessarily confirm the beginning of a long-term bull market.
He explained that Bitcoin’s recovery was supported by easing macroeconomic pressure and the fact that BTC had previously been undervalued between January and March 2026. Increased demand in perpetual futures trading also helped push prices higher, suggesting that leveraged traders played a major role in the rally instead of strong spot market buying.
Interestingly, market sentiment from whales and social activity still remains in “Fear” territory, even as Bitcoin’s price climbs higher. Meanwhile, volatility and price indicators are showing “Greed,” suggesting the rally is being driven mainly by price momentum rather than a major shift in investor confidence.
Monero also pointed out that Bitcoin’s current realized profits are still far below the 130,000 BTC to 200,000 BTC range commonly seen during full bull markets. Because of this, he believes the market may still face additional downside risks.
He further warned that while perpetual futures activity continues to rise, spot demand and exchange inflows remain relatively weak. According to Monero, this setup increases the possibility of a significant correction, even though the market may not have reached a final peak yet.
