Bitcoin Stalls Below $110K as Market Awaits Breakout or Breakdown: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin (BTC) traded in a tight range between $107,942 and $109,717 on July 7, 2025, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears near the crucial $110,000 resistance zone. Despite the narrow price action, the leading cryptocurrency managed to hold steady at $108,831, supported by a market cap of $2.16 trillion and daily trading volume exceeding $19.6 billion.
This consolidation comes as Bitcoin continues to ride a broader uptrend that began in mid-June, rebounding from a low of around $98,240. Since then, BTC has gained over 10%, maintaining strong technical structure amid macro uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Uptrend Holds, but Resistance Looms
On the daily chart, BTC displays a well-supported bullish structure, aided by a double-bottom formation at the June low and the recent appearance of bullish engulfing candles. These patterns, coupled with gradually rising volume, suggest growing confidence among traders and institutions alike.
Key moving averages (MA) on the daily timeframe – including the 10-, 20-, and 30-day EMAs and SMAs – continue to provide bullish signals, with price consistently closing above all three levels. This alignment supports a trend-following outlook, particularly for swing traders targeting a breakout beyond $110,500.
However, analysts are closely watching the $105,000–$106,000 zone, a crucial pullback support level. If Bitcoin fails to hold this area on a downside correction, it could trigger a shift in short-term sentiment, potentially targeting $102,000 or even retesting the $98,000 level that marked the recent swing low.
4-Hour Chart: Sideways Drift Signals Indecision
On the 4-hour chart, BTC rallied from $105,130 to $110,557 before entering a period of sideways consolidation, trading between $108,000 and $109,000 since July 4. This tight range indicates a pause in bullish momentum, with volume tapering off in recent sessions.
Such consolidation often precedes a major move. Traders are divided on whether this price action reflects accumulation (buyers preparing for a breakout) or distribution (sellers offloading near resistance). A decisive break above $110,000, backed by a strong spike in volume, would likely confirm bullish continuation toward $112,500 and eventually $115,000. Conversely, a breakdown below $107,800 would shift short-term momentum bearish.
Entry signals for breakout traders include a confirmed reclaim of $109,200 with volume, while more conservative players may wait for a clean close above $110,500 on higher timeframes.
Market Sentiment & On-Chain Insights
Sentiment across major crypto communities and social platforms remains cautiously optimistic, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently at 72, indicating a moderate level of greed — a sign of strong interest but also a warning for potential overextension.
On-chain metrics reinforce bullish undercurrents:
- Exchange reserves of BTC continue to decline, suggesting accumulation by whales and long-term holders.
- Hashrate remains near all-time highs, reflecting network strength and miner confidence despite rising difficulty.
- Open interest in Bitcoin futures has grown by nearly 8% week-over-week, signaling heightened interest from derivatives traders.
Moreover, ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products in the U.S. and Hong Kong have resumed after a brief slowdown in late June, supporting the idea that institutions are still allocating capital toward digital assets.
Macroeconomic Factors and Global Outlook
Bitcoin’s current movement also aligns with broader macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this month, but traders are already pricing in a possible rate cut by Q4 2025 amid signs of slowing inflation and mixed labor data.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar have led some institutional investors to rotate into alternative assets, including Bitcoin and tokenized commodities like gold. This macro environment could continue to act as a tailwind for crypto markets if traditional equities remain volatile.
Conclusion: Critical Juncture Ahead
Bitcoin is once again at a make-or-break point, with bulls needing a clean breakout above $110,000–$110,500 to reclaim momentum. Failure to do so could invite deeper consolidation or even downside probes.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $110,500 / $112,500 / $115,000
- Support: $107,800 / $106,000 / $102,000
As the market awaits its next move, both long- and short-term traders would do well to remain nimble, follow volume trends, and watch for macro catalysts that could tilt the balance in either direction.
