VanEck: Bitcoin Could Reach $180,000 If Key Factors Align
According to VanEck’s Mid-October 2025 ChainCheck report, Bitcoin (BTC) could climb much higher — potentially reaching $180,000 before the current bull market ends.
VanEck links Bitcoin’s long-term growth to global money supply expansion (M2) and futures market flows. If both move in the right direction, Bitcoin’s price could surge significantly.
Bitcoin and Global Money Supply Connection
Since 2014, Bitcoin’s price has shown about a 0.5 correlation with the growth of global M2 money supply. During that period, liquidity across the top five major currencies doubled — from around $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s price jumped roughly 700x. VanEck estimates that Bitcoin currently represents around 2% of the global money supply, suggesting that owning less than that share means “betting against” the asset class.
While not a perfect prediction model, this data shows a clear link between money printing and asset demand, especially for Bitcoin as a limited-supply digital asset.
Futures Market Flows and Price Volatility
VanEck’s report highlights that futures markets have been a major driver of short-term Bitcoin price moves. Around 73% of Bitcoin’s price variation since October 2020 can be explained by changes in futures open interest, supported by a t-statistic of 71.
The total cash collateral backing these contracts is near $145 billion. Open interest peaked at $52 billion on October 6, then dropped to $39 billion by October 10, following an 8-hour, 20% BTC price plunge.
Borrowed positions in futures have occasionally reached the 95th percentile, but historically, such highly leveraged setups rarely last more than 75 days — explaining Bitcoin’s sudden and sharp price swings.
Rotation Between Safe Havens and Risk Assets
Analysts also noted that the recent $2.5 trillion correction in gold’s market cap should be seen as a temporary cooldown, not a loss of trust. Investors often rotate between safe assets (like gold) and risk assets (like Bitcoin) depending on global macroeconomic signals.
If the U.S. CPI report softens or trade tensions ease, capital could shift back into Bitcoin. In such a scenario, VanEck projects BTC could reach $130,000–$132,000 in Q1 2026, with short-term targets of $129,200 and $141,000.
A breakout above $125,000 would signal renewed buying momentum among investors.
Key Price Levels and Risk Zones
Currently, Bitcoin is trading between $108,000 and $125,000. VanEck identifies the “Whale Buy Zone” near $108,600, suggesting that large investors are likely accumulating at that level.
As long as Bitcoin stays above $108,000, the overall trend remains bullish, with the odds favoring more upside in the coming months.
