Ethereum’s MVRV Ratio Shows Warning Signal — Similar to When Price Dropped from $3,300 to $1,400
Recent on-chain data shows a potential warning sign for Ethereum (ETH). Analyst Ali Martinez noted that Ethereum’s MVRV Ratio has just formed a “death cross” — a bearish signal that last appeared before ETH fell sharply from $3,300 to $1,400.
What Is the MVRV Ratio?
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio compares two types of Ethereum market values:
- Market Cap: The current total value of all ETH at today’s prices.
- Realized Cap: The total value based on the last price each ETH token was moved on the blockchain.
In simple terms, the Realized Cap represents how much investors actually paid for their ETH, while the Market Cap shows how much their ETH is worth now.
If the MVRV Ratio is above 1, investors are generally in profit. If it’s below 1, it means most investors are holding ETH at a loss.
Why It Matters
According to Martinez, the MVRV Ratio has recently dropped below its 160-day moving average (MA) — a bearish crossover often referred to as a “death cross.”
The last time this happened, in February, Ethereum’s price plunged by nearly 60%, dropping from $3,300 to $1,400.
However, not every crossover has led to a crash. In several past cases, the ratio quickly bounced back above the moving average, canceling out the bearish signal.
What’s Next?
Now, analysts are watching to see whether this latest drop below the 160-day MA will lead to another major correction — or if it’s just a short-term dip.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $4,000, down about 2% in the past week.
