China’s Largest Bitcoin Miner Predicts BTC Could Fall to the US$42,000–US$44,000 Range by Late 2026
China’s Leading Bitcoin Miner Predicts BTC Could Bottom at $42,000-$44,000 by Late 2026
Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s most prominent Bitcoin miners, believes Bitcoin (BTC) could reach its bear-market bottom between October and December 2026.
He estimates the potential bottom range for BTC at between $42,000 and $44,000, based on a long-term market cycle model and the declining mNAV ratio of Strategy.
In a post on X, Jiang noted that Strategy’s mNAV had fallen to 0.72, close to the 0.7 level recorded on May 11, 2022, during the previous market cycle transition. However, he emphasized that this level only suggests a potential bottoming zone for mNAV and does not confirm that Bitcoin itself has reached a market bottom.
Jiang also linked the current reading to growing market stress surrounding Strategy-related assets, including the recent de-pegging of STRC. According to him, the setup could create arbitrage opportunities through long positions in MSTR shares and short positions in Bitcoin. His comments were focused on market timing rather than signaling a near-term bullish outlook for BTC.
mNAV Model Forms the Basis of the Forecast
Jiang uses mNAV (market net asset value) to compare Strategy’s stock price with the value of the Bitcoin held behind each share. A ratio above 1 indicates that the stock is trading at a premium, while a ratio below 1 suggests weaker investor demand relative to the company’s Bitcoin holdings.
He pointed out that during the previous cycle, Strategy’s mNAV bottomed before Bitcoin itself. In May 2022, mNAV reached its low when Bitcoin was trading around $31,017. BTC later fell to its cycle low near $15,476 on Nov. 21, 2022, roughly six months afterward.
Based on this model, Jiang projects that Bitcoin could reach its bear-market bottom around Oct. 31, 2026, near $44,016. He acknowledged that the model has historically been more accurate in predicting timing than exact price levels, leading him to estimate a broader bottom range of $42,000 to $44,000.
Ongoing Market Pressure Adds to the Outlook
The forecast comes as Bitcoin remains under pressure after losing several key support levels in June. BTC recently fell below $60,000 for the second time this month, triggering more than $850 million in crypto liquidations.
The downturn has also weighed on Strategy shares, which have declined sharply as investors reduce exposure to crypto-related equities.
Meanwhile, analysts continue to monitor the $60,000-$62,000 range as an important support zone. Some forecasts have already shifted toward lower targets of $50,000, $45,000, and even $40,000 before 2027. However, no model can accurately guarantee where Bitcoin’s ultimate cycle bottom will occur.
Still Just a Forecast
Jiang stressed that his prediction represents a market view rather than a guaranteed outcome. Bitcoin’s price remains influenced by a wide range of factors, including market liquidity, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, interest-rate expectations, exchange leverage, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
He revealed that he has recently sold part of his spot Bitcoin holdings and opened short positions for short- to medium-term trading. Jiang said he plans to accumulate Bitcoin again if prices approach his projected bear-market bottom range.
According to him, the key test for the forecast will be whether Strategy’s mNAV continues to serve as a leading indicator for Bitcoin’s price movements. If that relationship weakens, market attention is likely to shift back toward spot demand and other fundamental drivers.
