Bitcoin Holds Above $64,700 Amid Tug-of-War Between Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bitcoin Holds Below US$65,000 as Short-Term Bullish Momentum Faces Long-Term Resistance
Bitcoin remained below the US$65,000 level this week as renewed upward momentum continued to face structural resistance in the market. Over the past seven days, the leading cryptocurrency gained 1.59% to reach US$64,792. The advance was supported by a seven-indicator analytical model, which currently points to a moderately bullish market outlook.
Short-Term Momentum Meets Long-Term Resistance
Several technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin still has room to move higher. Four of the seven indicators in the model are flashing bullish signals. Analysts note that a positive MACD reading and a 0.74 standard deviation increase in open interest reflect growing buying interest, helping Bitcoin recover toward the US$65,000 level after an extended period of range-bound trading.
However, the outlook becomes more balanced when the Realized Price metric—an on-chain indicator that measures Bitcoin’s average purchase price based on coin age—is added to the model. This expands the total number of indicators to eight, with four now signaling bearish conditions. As a result, the recommended Bitcoin allocation drops sharply from full exposure to around 30%.
The conflicting signals between short-term momentum and long-term structural indicators have kept traders cautious. Investors are waiting to see whether the current momentum is strong enough to break through key resistance levels.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin closed another weekly candle above its 200-week moving average (MA), a positive technical sign. However, he emphasized that Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) to strengthen its bullish trend. Otherwise, the price could remain trapped in a volatile range around US$60,000.
On-Chain Indicators Continue to Signal Caution
The Realized Price Age-Band Crossover indicator also continues to temper Bitcoin’s bullish outlook. This on-chain metric analyzes Bitcoin’s cost basis across five coin-age groups to determine whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase.
Currently, four of the five age-band pairs remain inverted, a pattern typically associated with distribution phases. This suggests that long-term holders are selling more Bitcoin than they are accumulating. The largest negative spread, around 26.3%, is observed between the one-to-three-month and six-to-twelve-month holder cohorts.
This indicates that newer investors have yet to dominate Bitcoin’s cost basis structure. In other words, many market participants remain cautious and are reluctant to significantly increase their exposure at current price levels.
Historically, the Realized Price model has delivered a Sharpe ratio of 1.27 over a full market cycle, with a maximum drawdown of around 40%—significantly lower than the 76% decline experienced by a traditional buy-and-hold strategy. Meanwhile, short-term momentum strategies have generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 60.5%.
