Bitcoin Needs a 92% Rally for $120K Buyers to Break Even
Investors who bought Bitcoin when it first crossed $120,000 in July 2025 are still sitting on nearly 48% losses. A $1,000 investment made at that level is now worth about $520, meaning Bitcoin would need to climb roughly 92.2% for those investors to break even, excluding transaction fees.
According to CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,073. The cryptocurrency first broke above $120,000 in July 2025, reaching $123,165, before setting a new all-time high of $126,198 on Oct. 6, 2025.
$72.2K and $76.6K Are Key Recovery Levels
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to face selling pressure before it can return to the $100,000 level.
The analytics firm estimates the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis—the average purchase price of recent buyers—at around $72,200. Meanwhile, the True Market Mean, which reflects the broader average cost basis of active investors, stands near $76,600.
Bitcoin has traded below both levels for roughly five months.
If the price returns to these levels, some investors who have been underwater may choose to sell and exit at breakeven or with smaller losses. Others, however, may continue holding if they expect the rally to continue.
Stronger Demand Is Still Needed
In its July 13 update, Glassnode said Bitcoin’s move toward $64,000 lacked strong conviction due to weak spot market participation and subdued on-chain activity.
Two days later, the firm noted signs of improvement, saying long-term holder capitulation had eased and buyers had absorbed the June sell-off. However, it emphasized that a market bottom has not yet been fully confirmed.
As a result, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $72,200 and $76,600 will depend on whether fresh demand is strong enough to absorb potential selling pressure at those levels.
$120K Buyers Remain Far From Recovery
Even if Bitcoin rallies back to $100,000, investors who bought near $120,000 would still be well below breakeven.
Glassnode also warned that downside risks remain. In an earlier report, the firm said $53,000, near Bitcoin’s bear-market Realized Price, remains a possible downside scenario.
Before Bitcoin can realistically target $100,000 or revisit its previous highs above $123,000, it must first reclaim the $72,200 and $76,600 cost-basis levels. Successfully breaking through these zones would indicate that market demand is strong enough to support a broader recovery.
