Geopolitical Wins, But Crypto Still Struggles
The end of October was a busy time for investors. Between October 29–30, two big events took place: the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and a high-level summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
U.S.–China Agreement Brings Market Relief
During the summit, China agreed to three major U.S. demands:
- Delaying its rare earth export restrictions for a year,
- Restarting U.S. soybean imports, and
- Strengthening trade cooperation.
In return, the U.S. lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%. Both leaders also agreed to visit each other next year.
This trade deal quickly boosted traditional markets. Gold prices, which had jumped during the trade conflict earlier in October, fell back to about $3,990 per ounce. The Nasdaq 100 Index also climbed 2.7% thanks to lower geopolitical risk and strong company earnings.
Bitcoin Drops Despite Positive News
While traditional assets improved, Bitcoin struggled. By Sunday, Bitcoin’s price was around $110,000, down 9.4% since October 10.
Experts say Bitcoin’s drop began after a massive market crash on October 10, when about $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out. This caused a big loss in trading momentum, weakening the crypto rally.
Powell’s Comments Create New Uncertainty
The U.S. Federal Reserve also announced a small 0.25% rate cut and said it would end Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1—normally good news for risky assets like crypto.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that another rate cut might not happen in December. This surprise comment caused Bitcoin to fall 2% right away
Before the meeting, markets expected a 91.5% chance of another cut in December. After Powell spoke, that confidence dropped to 55%, though it later recovered to 70.4%.
More Fed Voices Add to the Confusion
Other Fed officials, like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, backed Powell’s cautious stance, saying it reflects the range of opinions within the central bank.
So while the trade truce reduced global tension, the Fed’s mixed messages brought new uncertainty about future rate cuts.
What’s Next: Key Economic Data This Week
This week’s focus will shift to U.S. economic data, especially jobs and inflation reports.
- Tuesday: Job Openings (JOLTs)
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
- Friday: Michigan Inflation Expectations
If job numbers are strong, the Fed may delay cutting rates again in December.
Also, several Fed officials—including Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller—will give speeches this week that could influence the market.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index, which measures crypto market confidence, fell to 41, its lowest level since August—signaling that investors remain cautious.
