Bitcoin held above $62,000 after renewed tensions between the United States and Iran slowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices higher and reviving inflation concerns across global markets.
According to CryptoSlate data, the leading cryptocurrency traded around $63,000 on Thursday (July 9), remaining above the key $60,000 level that traders have closely watched since last month’s market sell-off.
The resilience came despite fresh US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory attacks by Tehran, which raised concerns over broader disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude settled 5.2% higher at $78.02 per barrel on Wednesday, its highest closing price since June 19 after briefly surpassing $80 during the session. US crude also advanced, while stock markets traded mixed and bond markets reflected renewed concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated for longer.
For Bitcoin, the oil rally comes at a challenging time. The digital asset has only recently begun stabilizing after a difficult June, but demand has yet to recover enough to make its rebound less vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.
Higher crude prices can fuel inflation expectations, push bond yields higher, and reduce the likelihood of monetary easing. These factors typically weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
As a result, Bitcoin is now caught between strong support around $60,000 and rising energy prices that could once again place the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy at the center of market attention.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Renew Inflation Risks
The latest escalation followed a second consecutive day of US strikes on Iranian targets after Washington said commercial vessels had been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian media reported explosions along the country’s southern coast and said strikes also hit Iranian-controlled islands in the Gulf. Iran’s Health Ministry said at least 14 people had been killed over the past two nights.
President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US strikes were retaliation for attacks on commercial vessels and warned that any further action by Iran would be met with a stronger response.
The conflict quickly spilled over into energy markets because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical routes for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.
According to Reuters, four oil and LNG tankers turned back after attempting to pass through the Strait, including three empty LNG carriers bound for Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg, citing Kpler data, reported that shipping traffic through the Strait slowed sharply on Thursday. Only one oil tanker was seen transiting the waterway alongside an Iranian container ship, while no vessel activity was recorded along the route near Oman, which is commonly used to avoid Iranian-controlled waters.
The slowdown marked a significant reversal from recent activity. Bloomberg reported that only 14 commodity vessels crossed the Strait on Wednesday, well below the average of 34 tankers per day recorded during the three weeks following the ceasefire.
Although the waterway has not been officially closed, reduced traffic could tighten global energy supplies. Shipowners may avoid the route, insurers could raise premiums, and buyers may seek alternative supplies while security risks remain elevated.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said the disruption indicates that the Strait of Hormuz has not fully returned to normal following the ceasefire.
“The disruption is a reminder that the Strait never fully reopened and that the recent removal of the geopolitical risk premium may have been premature.”
The slowdown in shipping also helped lift oil prices, reversing some of the relief seen after last month’s ceasefire, when the US and Iran agreed to halt attacks and resume negotiations.
However, the renewed fighting has once again raised concerns over Middle Eastern oil supplies. At the same time, Russia’s diesel export ban has added further pressure to global energy markets.
The rise in oil prices has also complicated the interest rate outlook. Investors had previously expected softer inflation and slower economic growth to give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates. That scenario becomes less likely if crude prices remain near $80 per barrel or continue to climb.
Reuters reported that Brent’s latest rally reignited inflation concerns, pushing short-term bond yields higher and increasing expectations that major central banks may maintain tighter monetary policies for longer.
Hansen noted that higher oil prices increase the risk of prolonged inflation, although recent weakness in the US labor market could discourage the Fed from raising interest rates again anytime soon.
This creates a less favorable environment for risk assets. Higher energy costs increase production and transportation expenses, pressure consumer spending, and make it more difficult for central banks to justify policy easing.
Bitcoin’s Hold Above $62,000 Faces Another Test
The changing interest rate outlook has put Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $62,000 under closer scrutiny. Elevated energy prices could keep financial conditions tight just as the cryptocurrency attempts to rebuild market demand.
Recent price action suggests sellers have not yet forced a deeper decline after June’s downturn, which was driven by weaker fund inflows, rising exchange balances, and tighter liquidity.
Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 even as oil prices climbed and investors began pricing in the possibility of higher interest rates for longer.
According to CryptoQuant analysts, Brent crude trading above its annual average has historically coincided with more challenging conditions for Bitcoin. While the relationship is not always direct, sustained oil rallies can fuel inflation expectations, lift bond yields, and divert capital away from risk assets.
As a result, Bitcoin once again faces the same macroeconomic pressures seen in June. Although geopolitical tensions often strengthen the case for scarce assets, Bitcoin has generally traded based on liquidity conditions, investor positioning, and monetary policy expectations rather than behaving like traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
Therefore, developments in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to play a key role in determining the crypto market’s near-term direction. If shipping traffic returns to normal, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices could ease, reducing pressure on bond yields and allowing investors to refocus on crypto-specific factors such as spot Bitcoin ETF flows, leverage, and spot market demand.
On the other hand, if disruptions persist and Brent crude remains near or above $80 per barrel, inflation concerns are likely to stay at the forefront, particularly if diesel and LNG supplies remain constrained.
Such conditions could encourage investors to reduce exposure to assets that rely on accommodative liquidity, including Bitcoin.
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s ability to remain above $62,000 suggests the market has not yet viewed the renewed conflict as a reason for aggressive selling. However, that level cannot yet be considered a firm support as long as oil prices remain elevated and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue.
